The moving parts of the U.S. macro economy on one page: policy, the curve, jobs, prices and credit, straight from FRED.
Data through Oct 23, 2026·shaded bands are NBER recessions
Fed funds against core PCE inflation. The gap is the real policy rate: fed funds minus trailing core PCE. Judge tight or loose against neutral, which most estimates put a little under 1%, not against zero.
2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. When the 2-year sits above the 10-year the curve is inverted, which has preceded every recession since 1980.
Unemployment rises slowly, then fast. Payroll growth usually stalls first.
Headline CPI swings with food and energy; core CPI and core PCE show what sticks. The Fed's target is 2% on PCE.
Two independent readings. The Sahm rule watches only unemployment and triggers at 0.50. The smoothed probability comes from a model of payrolls, production, income and sales. When both move together, that is the signal worth taking seriously.
Both are coincident, not leading: they tell you a recession has likely begun, not that one is coming.
Durable goods orders are what businesses commit to; vehicle sales are what households commit to. Both are purchases that can wait, so both sag before the wider economy does.
What borrowing actually costs, the premium investors demand to hold corporate risk, and the size of the Fed's balance sheet.
Permits are pulled before ground is broken, so they lead starts by a month or two. Prices are Case-Shiller: repeat sales of the same houses, so the line tracks the market rather than the mix of what happened to sell.